Global fertilizer markets ended Q1 2026 under severe strain. The market environment is now characterized by tight availability, sharply higher fertilizer prices, and elevated volatility across major fertilizer products.
The major disruption in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz delivered a shock to the fertilizer supply chain and removed a substantial volume of major fertilizers and critical inputs from global trade.
In fact, 30% of global urea, 27% of ammonia, 24% of phosphates and 48% of sulfur exports transit the critical Middle East corridor. The energy market effects of the Middle East conflict have impacted fertilizer production as well. Qatar’s flow of liquid natural gas has collapsed and sharply reduced nitrogen fertilizer production in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh and pushed Indian urea output lower. Higher liquid natural gas prices are stressing production in North Africa and Europe as well. Continued disruptions to the flow of critical energy inputs to the fertilizer production process will have a continued effect on global nitrogen fertilizer markets.
Nitrogen fertilizer markets are the most exposed. Phosphate markets are similarly pressured. Saudi Arabia hasn’t been able to ship normal DAP/MAP volumes. Phosphate production costs have also rapidly increased due to the shock to the supply chain necessary for phosphate production. Sulfur and ammonia imports are both blocked by the closure of the Strait.
Other countries are maintaining limits on exports of their domestic fertilizer production. Turkey has banned urea exports; Russia has suspended ammonium nitrate exports; and China has export restrictions in place on urea, DAP/MAP, NP and SSP/DSP.
While potash remains comparatively more balanced, indirect effects from price increases in other nutrients are expected to affect demand in 2026.
Fertilizer prices have risen rapidly. Prices for nitrogen fertilizer and phosphates have risen far faster than agricultural commodity prices, compressing farm margins and accelerating affordability stress. RaboResearch’s fertilizer affordability index has moved decisively into negative territory and is expected to remain constrained throughout 2026, with only limited recovery in the second half of the year.
Overall, the global fertilizer market faces a prolonged period of tight supply, weak affordability and heightened price risk. Even if geopolitical tensions ease, the global fertilizer market will be slow to return to normal. The outlook for 2026 points to continued pressure on farm economics and increased downside risks for global crop production and food price stability.
Read more in Rabobank’s semiannual fertilizer outlook.
Report Authors
Bruno Fonseca
Analyst — Farm Inputs
Cindy van Rijswick
Global Head Crops
Stephen Nicholson
North American Head Crops
Samuel Taylor
Analyst – Farm Inputs
Lief Chang
Senior Analyst — Grains & Oilseeds
Doriana Milenkova
Analyst Farm Inputs and Sugar
Paul Joules
Agriculture Analyst
Frank Donker
Data Scientist
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