Geopolitical tensions, whether it’s U.S.-Venezuela, Russia-Ukraine or U.S.-China, will continue to present headline risks to energy markets in 2026. Price declines will dominate the global energy market as a structurally stronger supply picture takes hold.
Crude Oil Prices
Crude oil markets slumped in 2025. Brent crude oil prices started the year at $74.93/bbl and ended at $60.85/bbl. WTI followed a similar trajectory from $71.85 down to $57.42/bbl. These declines involved a steep selloff in March and April due to tariff implementations, a brief spike in the summer after the bombing of nuclear facilities in Iran and a slow trend downward in the second half of last year as OPEC continually returned cuts of oil production to the global oil market.
Industry consensus is that global oil markets will suffer from oversupply in 2026 and inventories will continue to build as global oil demand fails to keep pace with supply. Rabobank analysts agree to a point but are not as bearish as others due to a number of factors.
Oil production did increase last year. OPEC raised targets by around 2.9 million barrels per day from April to December to the point that most OPEC member nations are close to oil production capacity. US, Brazilian and Guyanese supply ramped up in 2025 as well. However, Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s export terminals have had an effect on oil export capabilities in that region.
Global oil demand growth is slowing to a point, but demand for diesel, jet fuel and heavy marine fuels is still increasing. The slowdown in demand is mainly in gasoline which continues to feel the effects of work-from-home policies and demand for battery electric and hybrid electric vehicles.
The Trump administration has made clear its plans for investment in Venezuela’s oil industry, including encouraging U.S. oil companies to make investments. Venezuelan crude oil production is a heavy, sour grade of crude oil and Venezuela exports 800k barrels per day of its 900k barrel per day total oil production. Short-term effects from the recent U.S. action are minimal since the oil production facilities were undamaged. Any substantial increases in exports may have to wait until the promised investments can take hold and improvements to oil production facilities are constructed.
Natural Gas
U.S. natural gas markets closed 2025 on an all-time high, setting new records across production, exports, and demand. Dry gas output averaged 108 bcf/d, the highest on record, driven by robust growth in key basins. LNG exports also reached unprecedented levels, averaging 16.4 bcf/d, as new liquefaction capacity came online and global demand remained strong. Total U.S. natural gas demand— including LNG feedgas—hit 114 bcf/d, another record, supported by resilient industrial activity and strong residential consumption through the year
European power markets in 2026 will see continued renewable growth driving more frequent negative prices during high-output periods, while volatility persists due to reliance on gas during renewable lulls and coal phase-outs. Falling natural gas prices should ease generation costs and lower average wholesale gas prices but rising carbon costs and structural intermittency will keep price swings and scarcity pricing as defining features of the market. For more of Rabobank’s oil price forecast and natural gas price forecasts, including commentary on geopolitical risks and global oil demand, download the full report.
Authors
Joe DeLaura
Senior Energy Strategist
Florence Schmit
Senior Energy Strategist
Disclaimer
Marketing communication
This publication is issued by Coöperatieve Rabobank U.A., registered in Amsterdam, and/or any one or more of its affiliates and related bodies corporate (jointly and individually; “Rabobank”). Coöperatieve Rabobank U.A. is authorised and regulated by De Nederlandsche Bank and the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets. Rabobank London Branch is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority (“PRA”) and subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the PRA. Details about the extent of our regulation by the PRA are available from us on request. Registered in England and Wales No. BR002630. An overview of all locations from where Rabobank issues research publications and the (other) relevant local regulators can be found here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/raboresearch-locations.
This document is directed exclusively to eligible counterparties and professional clients, and not at retail clients (howsoever defined), as defined under the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive II (MiFID II) in the European Union and under local law in other relevant jurisdictions.
This document does not purport to be impartial research and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of Investment Research as defined in Article 36 of the Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2017/565 and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of Investment Research.
This document does NOT purport to be an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter and it must not be relied upon by any recipient as an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter. No reliance may be placed by a recipient on any representations or statements made outside this document (oral or written) by any person which state or imply (or may be reasonably viewed as stating or implying) any such impartiality.
This document is for information purposes only and is not, and should not be construed as, an offer, invitation or recommendation. This document shall not form the basis of, or cannot be relied upon in connection with, any contract or commitment by Rabobank to enter into an agreement or transaction. This document does not constitute investment advice nor is any information provided intended to offer sufficient information such that it should be relied upon for the purposes of making a decision in relation to whether to acquire any financial products. You should consider the appropriateness of the information and statements having regard to your specific circumstances, and obtain financial, legal and/or tax advice as appropriate. The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness.
The information and statements herein are made in good faith and are only valid as at the date of publication of this document or marketing communication. Any opinions, forecasts or estimates herein constitute a judgement of Rabobank as at the date of this document, and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions, forecasts or estimates. All opinions expressed in this document are subject to change without notice. To the extent permitted by law, Rabobank does not accept any liability whatsoever for any loss or damage howsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith.
Insofar as permitted by applicable laws and regulations, Rabobank, its directors, officers and/or employees may have had or have a long or short position or act as a market maker and may have traded or acted as principal in any securities described within this document (or related investments) or may otherwise have conflicting interests. This may include hedging transactions carried out by Rabobank, and such hedging transactions may affect the value and/or liquidity of any securities described in this document. Further it may have or have had a relationship with or may provide or have provided corporate finance or other services to companies whose securities (or related investments) are described in this document. Further, internal and external publications may have been issued prior to this publication where strategies may conflict according to market conditions at the time of each publication. An overview of all relevant disclosures in this respect, as required under different rules and regulations and/or by different regulators can be found here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/raboresearch-disclosure.
This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose, except with the prior written consent of Rabobank. The distribution of this document may be restricted by law in certain jurisdictions and recipients of this document should inform themselves about, and observe any such restrictions.
A summary of the methodologies used by Rabobank can be found on our website.
Coöperatieve Rabobank U.A., Croeselaan 18, 3521 CB Utrecht, The Netherlands. All rights reserved.